Free weekly NFL betting letter
Find the bets
the books
priced wrong.
Bet the number, not the game.
The morning of every game day I price fifteen markets against the same live board you are about to bet into, find the ones the books have wrong, and hand you the exact number each bet is worth taking at — hours before kickoff, while it is still there.
What lands in your inbox
Every bet reads the same way: what it is, how often it lands, and the worst price worth taking it at. Nothing to decode.
The short list — as it went out
The first bet I published, from the September 9 letter, exactly as it went out. That game is over — this is the format, not a pick.
Every NFL market I price
- Passing, rushing and receiving yards
- Receptions, carries and passing touchdowns
- Teasers and half points
- Same-game parlays
- First quarter and opening kickoff
- Spreads, totals and moneylines
2 pages for every game
Every game on the slate gets two pages of its own — one on the matchup and the bets, one on the numbers behind them.
The matchup
EPA, pace, pressure and points per drive for both sides, each ranked against the league. You see what kind of game it is before you see a price.
The read
The angles that decide a card: a pass rush that gets home against a line that can't hold it, an offense that leans on the run the second it falls behind.
My bets
The plays in that game, each with the worst price worth taking and the stake it earns.
The board
My number on every prop in the game, side by side with what the market is paying — so you can price your own card in seconds.
Why it beats what you follow now
Most picks tell you who to bet. Almost none tell you the number that makes it worth betting — which is the half that decides whether you end the season up.
A real price on every bet
Each one comes with the worst number it is worth taking at. If your book is paying less, you pass — no guesswork.
Priced against a live board
Numbers start from where the books actually have the market the morning of the games — every book on the board, not a hunch, not a hot take, not last week's power ratings.
Deep on the games, short on the picks
Every game on the slate gets a full page of matchup, angles and numbers. The bet list stays short on purpose — only the plays that beat the price make it, so there is nothing to wade through.
And why one letter per game day
A week of football is not one event, so it does not get one email. Thursday night, Sunday and Monday night each get their own letter, sent that morning, covering only the games that kick off that day. You are never scrolling past a Monday game to find a Thursday one, and never handed a bet on a game that has already started.
Sending it that morning is what makes the price real. By then the final injury report is out and the day’s steam has already gone through the market, so the number the letter quotes is the number still sitting there when you open it — and it lands hours before kickoff, enough time to shop it across your books and get it down. A letter written on Wednesday about a Sunday game is quoting a price that has since moved.
Not a tout account
You have probably been burned by a picks account before. Here is what makes this one different.
722 checks before it sends
Every constant in the model is checked against the measurement behind it before a letter is built. If a number cannot be justified any more, nothing goes out.
No screenshots, no fake record
No winning-ticket posts, no quietly deleted losers, no cropped bet slips. Just the bets and the prices they need.
Written by someone betting it
This is the letter I build for myself and then send to a list. It is not a content operation with picks bolted onto the side.
Every bet the letter publishes is graded afterwards, win or lose, on the results page. It starts empty, it is never backfilled, and the bad weeks stay on it.
Common questions
The things people ask before they subscribe.
What do I actually get each week?
A letter the morning of every game day — usually three: Thursday, Sunday and Monday. Each one covers only the games that kick off that day, and each opens with the bets in them worth taking: player props, teasers and game bets, every one with the worst price it is worth taking at. Behind that, each game gets its own page: how the two teams match up, the angles worth knowing, the bets in that game, and my number on every prop in it.
Is it free?
Yes — completely, and there is no card, no trial and no paid tier to upgrade to. You give an email address and nothing else. It stays free while the letter is building a public record of how it does; if that ever changes you will be told well before it does, not billed by surprise.
When does it arrive?
The morning of the games it covers, hours before kickoff — Thursday, Sunday and Monday through the NFL season. That timing is the whole point: by then the final injury report is out and the day's line movement has already happened, so the number in the letter is the number still on the board when you open it, and there is still time to shop it across your books and get it down. Thursday's letter is about Thursday's game and nothing else; you are never handed a bet on a game that has already kicked off.
Do I need a particular sportsbook?
No. Every bet is published with the number it needs rather than a link to one book, so you take it wherever you already play and pass when your book is paying less than that.
What does “bet above” mean?
It is the worst price still worth taking that bet at. If your sportsbook is offering that number or better, the bet is live. If it is offering less, you skip it — the same pick is a winning bet at one price and a losing one at another.
Is this just NFL?
Yes. NFL only, through the regular season and the playoffs. Nothing else gets covered, which is why the coverage inside the NFL goes as deep as it does.
Are these guaranteed winners?
No, and anyone telling you otherwise is selling something. The model prices bets; it does not promise winners. Betting loses money on average and should only ever be done with money you can afford to lose.
How do I unsubscribe?
One click, from a link at the bottom of every email. Your address is never sold, rented or handed to anyone else.
Get it while
the number is still there.
Free, a letter every game day through the season. The bets worth taking, the price each one needs, and nothing to wade through.