Most betting explainers repeat each other. These do not: every number below is measured from public play-by-play and closing lines, and each one is printed with the sample it rests on so you can check it instead of trusting it.
What are key numbers in NFL betting?
A quarter of all NFL games end on a margin of exactly 3 or exactly 7. Here is the full distribution, what each half point is worth, and the slow decline nobody prices in.
Read the guideDo sportsbooks have different odds?
Two books close on a different number 81% of the time, and the better one is worth 0.445 points. Then the price column shows what they charge you for it — and why shopping alone does not make anyone a winning bettor.
Read the guideAre 6-point teasers profitable?
The textbook Wong window starts and ends half a point early at both ends, and the two rungs it omits carry more than half the qualifying legs. The arithmetic, the measured rates, and why a 13-point tease is a trap.
Read the guideIs buying a half point off 3 worth it?
The half point off 3 costs 18.3 cents, not the 25 every guide assumes, and it is worth 20 to 24. The 7 those guides send you to instead is a wash. Measured across 7,238 rung pairs at five books.
Read the guideWhat does -110 mean and what do I need to hit?
American odds, implied probability, the vig, and the one conversion that matters most — how many percentage points a single point of line is worth.
Read the guideThe figures come from the same place the newsletter’s model does: every NFL regular-season game since 1999, its play-by-play, and the closing line the market settled on. Nothing is quoted from another betting site, and nothing is rounded into a slogan.
Two things you will not find in these guides: a record, and a pick. What a newsletter returns is a performance claim and belongs beside its own results, not inside an explainer — so it lives on the results page, where every bet the letter publishes is graded either way. What these pages do instead is give you the arithmetic to judge any claim — including mine.
Last updated 2026-08-26. Every figure is measured from public NFL play-by-play and closing lines; the sample size is printed beside each one so it can be checked rather than taken on trust.
Nothing here is a prediction or a guarantee. Betting markets are priced by professionals and most bets lose. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Lines with Landon is an NFL betting newsletter, sent the morning of every game day.
This is the arithmetic behind the newsletter. The letter itself applies it to the actual slate: the bets worth taking, and the exact price each one needs to be worth it. A letter the morning of every game day through the season.
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