Betting odds calculator
Three questions, one page. What do I have to hit at this price? What is the worst price worth taking for what I believe? And what does a multi-leg ticket actually need? Everything runs in your browser — nothing is sent anywhere and there is nothing to sign up for.
1. What do I have to hit?
Every price implies a win rate. Beat it and the bet makes money; miss it and no amount of being right about the game saves you.
2. What price should I accept?
The inverse, and the one that decides whether a good read makes money. Put in what you think it wins and this is the worst number worth taking it at.
3. Teasers and parlays, leg by leg
Every leg has to win, so the bar rises fast. Pick a tease size and the leg rate is filled in from the measured sample; or type your own to price a parlay.
The 6-point window hit 73.88% over 2,871 legs, 1999–2025, graded at the closing number. 10 and 13-point teasers are deliberately not offered: they win far more legs and the advantage vanishes against a control, so their rates would flatter a ticket that is not actually an edge.
Every number above is in the address bar. Copy the link and it opens for someone else already filled in.
Why break-even matters more than the pick
The difference between −105 and −120 is over three percentage points of required hit rate. That is larger than almost any handicapping edge that genuinely exists, which is why shopping the price is not a refinement — on most bets it is bigger than the opinion.
| Price | Break-even |
|---|---|
| -135 | 57.45% |
| -120 | 54.55% |
| -115 | 53.49% |
| -110 | 52.38% |
| -105 | 51.22% |
| +100 | 50.00% |
| +120 | 45.45% |
| +150 | 40.00% |
| +200 | 33.33% |
The same arithmetic is why a coin flip loses at −110 and why a 55% bet is still a bad one at −140. If you only remember one number, remember that a standard price needs 52.38%, not 50%.
Where the numbers in the third box come from
The default per-leg rate of 75.71% is the measured win rate of qualifying 7-point NFL teaser legs over 3,677 of them since 1999 — see the teaser guide for the window and the price ladder. Change it to whatever you are pricing; the math does not care what the legs are.
For the distribution underneath all of it, and why 3 and 7 are the two numbers that matter, start here.
Common questions
How do I convert American odds to implied probability?
For a negative price, divide the number by itself plus 100 — so -110 becomes 110 / 210 = 52.38%. For a positive price, divide 100 by the number plus 100 — so +150 becomes 100 / 250 = 40%.
What win rate do I need at -110?
52.38%. A coin flip loses money at -110 because you risk $110 to win $100, so breaking even takes more than half your bets.
How do I work out a parlay's true price?
Multiply the legs together. Three legs at 75.71% each win 0.7571 x 0.7571 x 0.7571 = 43.4% of the time, which needs about +130 to break even. Compare that with what the book is paying — if it is less, the ticket loses however good the legs are.
Last updated 2026-08-26. Every figure is measured from public NFL play-by-play and closing lines; the sample size is printed beside each one so it can be checked rather than taken on trust.
Nothing here is a prediction or a guarantee. Betting markets are priced by professionals and most bets lose. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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